Hit / Miss = Final vs pick. Open = waiting for Final (not settled yet).
Source · supabase
Tracked picks
69
Settled
54
15 still open
Accuracy
61%
Selected range total
Brier score
0.232
Lower is better
Yesterday
2026-07-21 (NY)
Learning hints
From day totals — suggestions only, weights stay manual.
- ▸Yesterday (2026-07-21): 5/13 Hit (38%).
- ▸Yesterday was well below all-time accuracy — review misses before changing weights.
- ▸Conf learning waits for settled v3.4+ picks (current slate uses that Conf scale).
- ▸Away picks lag home (45% vs 72%) — possible homeField review after more N.
- ▸Learning is report-only: no automatic PREDICTION_WEIGHTS edits.
By day
Each slate day separately · footer row = selected range total.
| Date | Settled | Hit | Miss | Open | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | — |
| 2026-07-21Yday | 13 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 38% |
| 2026-07-20 | 15 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 60% |
| 2026-07-19 | 11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 73% |
| 2026-07-18 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 73% |
| Total (range) | 54 | 33 | 21 | 15 | 61% |
Avg model−market at pick: +2.2 pts (11 settled with market)
Hit rate by confidence
Conf buckets use v3.4+ picks only (0 of 54 settled). Accuracy / Brier above still count every settled game.
Conf 12–49
—
0 picks
Conf 50–64
—
0 picks
Conf 65–79
—
0 picks
Conf 80–95
—
0 picks
Picks by day
One day at a time · Previous / Next · Hit / Miss / Open under each date.
2026-07-22 · 1 / 5
2026-07-22
- OpenMiami Marlins @ Houston Astrospick Houston Astros · conf 52 · v3.4
- OpenDetroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubspick Detroit Tigers · conf 45 · v3.4
- OpenChicago White Sox @ Texas Rangerspick Texas Rangers · conf 41 · v3.4
- OpenSan Diego Padres @ Atlanta Bravespick San Diego Padres · conf 12 · v3.4
- OpenTampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jayspick Tampa Bay Rays · conf 76 · v3.4
- OpenLos Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Philliespick Los Angeles Dodgers · conf 52 · v3.4
- OpenMinnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardianspick Cleveland Guardians · conf 54 · v3.4
- OpenSt. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angelspick St. Louis Cardinals · conf 24 · v3.4
- OpenCincinnati Reds @ Seattle Marinerspick Seattle Mariners · conf 66 · v3.4
- OpenAthletics @ Arizona Diamondbackspick Arizona Diamondbacks · conf 12 · v3.4
- OpenWashington Nationals @ Colorado Rockiespick Colorado Rockies · conf 12 · v3.4
- OpenNew York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewerspick Milwaukee Brewers · conf 83 · v3.4
- OpenSan Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royalspick San Francisco Giants · conf 26 · v3.4
- OpenBaltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Soxpick Boston Red Sox · conf 50 · v3.4
- OpenPittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankeespick New York Yankees · conf 90 · v3.4
Informational model track record only — not gambling advice.