PropsDiamonds

Model Performance

Hit / Miss = Final vs pick. Open = waiting for Final (not settled yet).

Source · supabase
Tracked picks
69
Settled
54
15 still open
Accuracy
61%
Selected range total
Brier score
0.232
Lower is better

Yesterday

2026-07-21 (NY)

5/13 Hit · 38%

Learning hints

From day totals — suggestions only, weights stay manual.

  • Yesterday (2026-07-21): 5/13 Hit (38%).
  • Yesterday was well below all-time accuracy — review misses before changing weights.
  • Conf learning waits for settled v3.4+ picks (current slate uses that Conf scale).
  • Away picks lag home (45% vs 72%) — possible homeField review after more N.
  • Learning is report-only: no automatic PREDICTION_WEIGHTS edits.

By day

Each slate day separately · footer row = selected range total.

DateSettledHitMissOpenAccuracy
2026-07-2200015
2026-07-21Yday1358038%
2026-07-201596060%
2026-07-191183073%
2026-07-1815114073%
Total (range)5433211561%

Avg model−market at pick: +2.2 pts (11 settled with market)

Hit rate by confidence

Conf buckets use v3.4+ picks only (0 of 54 settled). Accuracy / Brier above still count every settled game.

Conf 12–49
0 picks
Conf 50–64
0 picks
Conf 65–79
0 picks
Conf 80–95
0 picks

Picks by day

One day at a time · Previous / Next · Hit / Miss / Open under each date.

2026-07-22 · 1 / 5

2026-07-22

  • Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros
    pick Houston Astros · conf 52 · v3.4
    Open
  • Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs
    pick Detroit Tigers · conf 45 · v3.4
    Open
  • Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers
    pick Texas Rangers · conf 41 · v3.4
    Open
  • San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves
    pick San Diego Padres · conf 12 · v3.4
    Open
  • Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays
    pick Tampa Bay Rays · conf 76 · v3.4
    Open
  • Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies
    pick Los Angeles Dodgers · conf 52 · v3.4
    Open
  • Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians
    pick Cleveland Guardians · conf 54 · v3.4
    Open
  • St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels
    pick St. Louis Cardinals · conf 24 · v3.4
    Open
  • Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners
    pick Seattle Mariners · conf 66 · v3.4
    Open
  • Athletics @ Arizona Diamondbacks
    pick Arizona Diamondbacks · conf 12 · v3.4
    Open
  • Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies
    pick Colorado Rockies · conf 12 · v3.4
    Open
  • New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers
    pick Milwaukee Brewers · conf 83 · v3.4
    Open
  • San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals
    pick San Francisco Giants · conf 26 · v3.4
    Open
  • Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox
    pick Boston Red Sox · conf 50 · v3.4
    Open
  • Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees
    pick New York Yankees · conf 90 · v3.4
    Open

Informational model track record only — not gambling advice.